Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
