It was 60 days prior that the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or a cause of the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. When the in-form star swept in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the wins have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club which has put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem curiously susceptible – but currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents had more efforts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club must confront in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the player he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward now would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
